It's all going according to plan

April 14, 2022

Fire and explosions aboard the Russian flagship guided missile cruiser Moskva (“Moscow”) resulted in the ship’s sinking today. This event looks like an indicator where Putin’s irresponsible invasion and war against Ukraine, not to mention the future of Russia herself, is headed: Straight to the bottom.

Putin snatched Crimea in 2014, and has been hoping to snatch the rest of Ukraine as well. It has been intimated that he has an interest in taking Moldova, too, and right now he is actively sending troops and heavy missile batteries to the border of Finland (yes, Finland!)

Not trying to stop Putin by any available means would be capitulation on an even greater scale as happened in 2014 when Putin annexed Crimea, a portion of Ukraine. Just imagine Russia annexed Alaska, should we be okay with that? How about when next he’s going for the rest of the western US? Yeah, I thought that wouldn’t sit so well with anyone else, either. Ukraine is really no different, and so we all pay a price when Ukraine is fighting for its own survival. All else would be permissiveness, and the price for it would be far greater in the long term, as has already been proved at the onset of World War II.

Oh, and do not expect that the sanctions and worsening conditions in Russia will trigger another revolution. First, the Russian people pride themselves on their resilience and will never ask for outside help; Second, the Russian revolution in 1917 was organized with extreme effort and care. A revolution today would require that military and police forces, as well as communications media all had reason to switch sides at once, but conditions are not nearly as dire today as they were in early 1917. The Russian security forces have arrested people holding up a “Mir” (World or Peace in Russian) credit card, quoted older speeches by Putin himself, espousing peace, holding a sign with the words, “Two Words” on them, even blank sheets of paper. In other words, give security forces an excuse and they will arrest Russians, even beat them up with impunity. Resistance in Russia today is like a revolt by mice. Even in great numbers, they are simply not in a position to effect a downfall of Putin’s government. Sad as it is, they will be crushed. The smart ones have found a way to escape Russia.

The condition of the Russian military appears far from optimal, and reports seem to indicate that an extremely high portion of Russian troops are unhappy with or even unwilling to fight in Ukraine. This would certainly explain why Russia’s fearsome army is falling far short of fulfilling Putin’s objectives. After all, how would Americans feel about attacking Canada, bombing Canadian cities into dust, and murdering Canadians civilians? American soldiers would be hating every second of it, too!

As Putin seems convinced that he’s doing the right thing, and will not be dissuaded by rational minds, the world’s only hope is to damage the Russian economy so severely that Putin simply cannot continue with his war effort. This is not a short-term objective. Putin has enough cash to keep the war going for six or eight months, maybe longer, even if all oil and gas income went to zero today, but the reduction of income does hurt other aspects of Putin’s Russia, and the long-term effect will be increased dysfunction until there is no more way for Putin to sustain any of it.

No matter how this war ends, Putin will probably be killed because he can no longer be trusted with the simplest things, and due to his actions alone it could be that Russia fragments from a unified country into many smaller and independent ones, so that each of those nations has a chance to move on from this travesty, their fate no longer tied to the heavy hand of a dictator who demonstrated his incompetence by resorting to violence.

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